Total winter crop production in South Australia is expected to fall by 17 per cent to 7.2 million tonnes, compared with last season’s above-average yields.
The quarterly crop report released this week by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said the figure assumed a return to average yields for all major crops.
Seasonal conditions for planting of 2014-15 winter crops were described as generally favourable, with the total area planted in South Australia forecast to increase by 1 per cent to almost 4 million hectares.
The area planted to wheat is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 2.4 million hectares, with production forecast to fall by 15 per cent to 4.4 million tonnes.
The area planted to barley is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2014–15 to 860,000 hectares, with production expected to drop by 20 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes, while the area planted to canola is forecast to remain at 300,000 hectares, with a 10 per cent decline in production to 397,000 tonnes.
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Nationwide, ABARES forecasts that the area planted to winter crops in 2014-15 will rise 1 per cent to 22.6 million hectares. Total national winter crop production is forecast to fall by 12 per cent in 2014-15 to around 38.8 million tonnes, after with the near-record highs achieved last year.
The crop report said Bureau of Meteorology predictions suggested a drier-than-average and hotter-than-average winter over much of southern Australia.
ABARES executive director Karen Schneider said in-season rainfall would be critical to the development of winter crops, particularly in areas where soil moisture levels were low.
“If sufficient and timely rainfall is not received, yields are likely to be reduced in these areas,” she said.
