Labor analysis shows sliver of hope
A State Labor analysis of federal voting figures – overlaid on state seats – contains some hope for the ALP faithful that the Weatherill Government can win the March 2014 poll.
However, it also confirms that three of Weatherill’s ministers are at serious risk of losing their seats.
While state and federal polls cannot be directly compared with complete confidence – the issues, candidates and campaigns are obviously different – the figures do give an indication of voting mood within an electorate.
State Labor secretary Reggie Martin overlaid state boundaries over the the two-party preferred vote at the September federal election. On his analysis, the seats of Bright and Hartley – held by ministers Chloë Fox and Grace Portolesi – are at greatest risk, with the federal vote translating to a 45.1/54.9 loss in Bright, and an even worse 44.5/55.5 rout in Hartley.
Former minister Paul Caica’s western suburbs seat of Colton also looks in trouble, with Martin’s analysis giving Labor 47.7 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
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Manufacturing minister Tom Kenyon’s north eastern suburban seat of Newland is in a similar position, sitting on 47.4 per cent based on the federal vote.
The analysis also shows why Labor has pushed Prospect mayor David O’Loughlin into running this time around, in an attempt to unseat Liberal MP Rachel Sanderson (as reported exclusively by InDaily last week). On the federal figures, 54.8 per cent of voters within the state seat’s boundaries preferred Labor in the federal poll.
Martin said that “on these figures and with an outstanding candidate in Prospect Mayor David O’Loughlin, we think we are in with a real chance of picking up Adelaide”.
O’Loughlin told ABC radio yesterday that he had only rejoined the ALP a week ago, after he had been asked to run by party members. He quit the party to run for the presidency of the Local Government Association, a position he took up earlier this year.
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Last night, he made an appearance on Channel 9 with Weatherill, pitching the idea of a new school on the old Royal Adelaide Hospital site.
Expect the Premier to play a prominent role in campaigning for O’Loughlin.
Labor has also been encouraged by the federal vote within the state electorate of Norwood, held by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.
The Labor two-party preferred vote was 48.4 per cent, although it seems highly unlikely the party could replicate this vote in a state election, given Marshall’s growing profile and status as leader.
Labor has preselected a serious candidate in Norwood who will, at the very least, keep Marshall on his toes. The candidate, lawyer Jo Chapley, is in-house counsel for her family’s chain of Foodland supermarkets.
In Unley, high school maths teacher Lara Golding faces a difficult task against Opposition education spokesman David Pisoni. On Martin’s analysis, 55.1 per cent of voters in the seat favoured the Liberals at the federal election.
Martin’s analysis shows the Labor held seats of Elder and Light on a knife-edge, and the seat of Mitchell within striking distance for the Liberals.
The Liberals need to pick up six seats to govern in their own right.
Former Howard Government minister, Alexander Downer, said today that the state Liberals needed to learn the lessons of the last state campaign, where the party won the popular vote but failed to win enough seats to govern.
Downer, who is set to be confirmed as the next president of the SA Liberal Party at the party’s annual general meeting on October 19, told ABC radio the 2014 election would be tough and the Liberals could not afford to be complacent.
He said the Liberals should not just focus on a state-wide campaign, but also had to fight an effective and dynamic grassroots campaign in marginal seats.
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